“Germany’s Bundestag votes on a historic defence spending increase, shaping Europe’s security future amid rising threats and uncertain US support. Learn what’s at stake.”

Germany is at a crossroads today which may determine the shape of European security and its resolve in Ukraine. The Bundestag is voting on a pivotal motion to lift caps on defense spending, potentially bringing in a tide of military investment. The vote is important not only for Germany but for the whole continent as European countries try to come to terms with the implications of a new global security order.

A Decisive Vote in the Face of Increasing Uncertainty

The timing of this vote could not be more timely. Russia is still pushing forward in Ukraine, and recent indicators from Washington indicate that Europe can no longer count on the United States to provide security guarantees. The aftershocks of last month’s Munich Security Conference continue to be felt, with US Vice-President JD Vance giving a blistering attack on European policies and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth cautioning that America’s 80-year defence commitment to Europe should not be assumed.

In this context, Germany’s new Chancellor-elect, Friedrich Merz, is trying to have the vote conducted under the current parliament, in which he would stand a higher likelihood of passage. The measure needs a two-thirds majority and opposition from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the far-left Linke parties could potentially be a hindrance. If the bill gets passed, then it would also need approval in Germany’s upper house.

Germany’s Defence Shift: What’s at Stake?

Germany has taken a prudent approach to military expenditure over the decades, guided by historical sensitivities and fiscal realities. Even the 23.2% Defence spending increase last year, which added up to an 11.7% rise in Europe, was viewed as a reluctant measure to address increasing security challenges. With the pressure building, now Germany has a stark decision: spend big on the military or be ill-prepared for what lies ahead.

The suggested bill would lift constitutional limits on defence expenditure above 1% of GDP, a huge deviation from the present limit of 0.35%. This would release billions of euros for German defence forces and a wider pan-Europe defence programme. The European Commission’s suggested €800 billion ReArm Europe Fund, unveiled by Ursula von der Leyen, is dependent on whether Germany will take the lead.

Europe’s Defence Dilemma

Germany is not unique in its plight. Throughout the continent, military spending has fallen behind, even as threats have been on the increase. The British Army, for instance, is currently at its lowest strength since the Napoleonic Wars and would allegedly be out of ammunition after two weeks in a war of all-out intensity. In contrast, Russia has increased military expenditure to nearly 7% of GDP, with 40% of the national budget allocated to defence. Conversely, most NATO members are just now reaching the 2% of GDP target established by the alliance.

The Kiel Institute calculates that Europe is currently spending only 0.1% of its GDP on defending Ukraine, while the 0.15% spent by the US. If Europe is to compensate for a possible reduction in US military aid, it will need to at least double its contribution to 0.21%. But money is not the only problem. A lot of Ukraine’s advanced weaponry—Patriot air defence systems, HIMARS rocket launchers, and satellite imagery—has come from the United States. If Washington pulls its plug, Europe will have a serious capability gap.

A Cultural Shift in European Security?

Defence experts contend that more funding is needed but also not enough. There must be a strategic and cultural transformation of the way Europe thinks about security as well. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the value of military mass and long-term manufacturing capabilities. President Putin has made Russia’s economy go on a war footing, with factories producing enormous quantities of drones, missiles, and artillery rounds. European defence industries have lagged in increasing production by comparison.

If Germany’s vote succeeds, it may pave the way for the rest of Europe to do the same. But as Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute notes, financial reform is not sufficient—Europe requires defence and security leaders who can steer a rapidly worsening geopolitical landscape.

The Road Ahead

With Germany’s Bundestag set to vote on this historic decision, the stakes could not be higher. The decision will decide if Germany is prepared to move beyond its risk-averse past and take a pioneering role in European defence. More generally, it will challenge Europe’s capacity to adapt to emerging security realities in an age of uncertainty.

In case the proposal does not take shape, plans in Europe to put in place a strong defense policy—also embracing the ReArm Europe Fund—may become meaningless. If passed, it can signal a beginning of another security policy period for Europe one wherein the continent accepts responsibility to protect itself with no regard for changing priorities on Washington’s side.